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January to March 2025 Article ID: NSS8969 Impact Factor:8.05 Cite Score:98 Download: 12 DOI: https://doi.org/ View PDf
Impact of Monetary policy on Inflation in India
Anil Chouhan
Assistant Professor, SAM Global University, Raisen (M.P.)
Abstract: The objective of this
paper is to analyze and discuss the impacts of monetary policy on India inflation,
identify the major drawbacks of the policies in minimizing the inflation rate
and suggest policy recommendations on some key issues of India inflation. To
estimate the effects of the monetary policy in India, at first the impact of
different monetary policy tools used by the “Reserve Bank of India” Next, the
impact of the monetary policy of India‘s bank and government have been analyzed
for which the data on money supply, growth of the GDP, changes in the price
level, and changes in the unemployment rate have been quantitatively analyzed.
We mainly used Consumer Price Index to determine the level on inflation in
India. We have further analyzed whether there is any correlation between (a)
inflation rates and money supply, and (b) inflation rates and growth of GDP.
The conclusions drawn are grounded in the results of comprehensive qualitative
and quantitative analyses. We have found
the correlation, the impacts of monetary policy and inflation, their drawbacks
and possible solutions such as independence of the monetary policy from the
fiscal policy and enhancing the transparency, communication and signaling
effect of policy moves, and control money supply through various open market
operations. Due to limited access to comprehensive data, some of our analysis
relies on hypotheses and models, resulting in variations depending on the model
used. Recently, several attempts by the RBI to control inflation through
restrictive monetary policies have led to a slowdown in economic growth,
sparking ongoing debates among academics and policymakers regarding the
effectiveness of monetary policy in India. In this context, the current study
aims to assess the causal relationship between monetary policy and its primary
objectives—economic growth and inflation control in India. The methodology
employed is Granger Causality testing in the frequency domain, as developed by
Lemmens et al. (2008), with the weighted average call money rate serving as a
proxy for monetary policy. In view of the fact that output gap is one of the
determinants of future inflation, an attempt has also been made to study the
causal relationship between output gap and inflation. The results of empirical
estimation show a bi-directional causality between policy rate and inflation
and between policy rate and output, which implies that the monetary authorities
in India. Policymakers are equally focused on both inflation and output growth
when formulating policy. Moreover, efforts to control inflation often impact
output to the same extent, or even more, than inflation itself, thereby
hindering the growth process. Previous studies on India have also found a
positive relationship between the output gap and inflation.. Furthermore, the
output gap causes inflation only in the short-to medium-term
Keywords: Monetary Policy, Inflation, Output Gap, Granger
Causality, Frequency Domain.














