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April to June 2026 Article ID: NSS9916 Impact Factor:8.05 Cite Score:8 Download: 0 DOI: https://doi.org/ View PDf
Dynamic Interlinkages Among Nifty-Based Financial Sector Indices: A Var and Granger Causality Approach
Mr. Gaurav Sharma
Research Scholar, Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya, Indore (M.P.)Dr. Kumbhan Khandelwal
Professor (Commerce) PMESABV, GACC, Indore (M.P.)
Abstract- Portfolio managers hoping to diversify across
Indian financial sectors might want to rethink their strategy. The data points
to a harsh reality: these markets move in lockstep.We ran the numbers on daily
closing prices from January 2014 through December 2024. The focus? The
benchmark Nifty 50 alongside major sectoral indices—specifically Nifty Bank,
Financial Services, Private Bank, and PSU Bank. Sure, the indices are
non-stationary on the surface. But run a Johansen Cointegration test, and a
clear long-term equilibrium emerges. They are tightly linked.Short-term
imbalances do happen, though. Market inefficiencies actually linger longer than
you might expect. Our Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) flagged a
surprisingly sluggish adjustment speed of just -0.023 back toward
equilibrium.So, who leads the dance? The broader market. Pairwise Granger
Causality tests show the Nifty 50 pulling the strings, directly driving the
performance of the Nifty Private Bank index rather than the other way
around.The takeaway here is pretty straightforward. Spreading capital across
these highly integrated financial sectors won't offer much long-term protection
or genuine diversification.
